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January 9, 2007
Tuesday 8:34:45 P.M. CST

The Will of the House

After more than four hours of procedural questions and delays, State Representative Jim Pitts (R-Waxahachie) withdraw from consideration as a candidate for the Speaker of the House.  His decision to withdraw came after a couple of recorded votes that would have helped his candidacy failed to get approved by a majority of the House.

As the lone candidate incumbent Speaker Tom Craddick was easily reelected by a vote of 121-27.  All the votes against the Speaker were cast by Democrats.

The House is set to convene tomorrow at 9 a.m.

No date has been set on when committee assignments will be released.

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January 9, 2007
Tuesday 8:33:13 P.M. CST

Gallegos Elected President Pro Tempore

The Texas Senate elected Senator Mario Gallegos (D-Houston) as President Pro Tempore.

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January 9, 2007
Tuesday 8:31:57 P.M. CST

Two-Thirds Rule Preserved in Texas Senate

The Texas Senate adopted its Senate Rules today and preserved the tradition of requiring 21 votes to bring up a bill for consideration on the Senate floor.

Newly elected Senator Dan Patrick of Houston offered an amendment to get rid of the requirement.  The Texas Senate defeated it 30 to 1.

Welcome!

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November 13, 2006
Monday 5:26:23 A.M. CST

Pre-filing Begins Today

Pre-filing of legislation for the 80th Texas Legislature begins today.

To read the latest filings, go to the MyCapitol.com homepage and click on the yellow box.

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September 13, 2006
Wednesday 10:11:45 P.M. CST

Former Texas Governor Ann Richards Dies
1933-2006
(Photo courtesy of AP)

Former Texas Governor Ann Richards died tonight at her home after a six-month battle with esophageal cancer.

To read more, click here.

MyCapitol.com expresses its condolences to the family of Governor Richards.

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September 13, 2006
Wednesday 4:01:23 A.M. CST

State Representative Glenda Dawson
1941-2006

State Representative Glenda Dawson (R-Pearland), 65, passed away yesterday at John Sealy Hospital in Galveston.

"I am saddened to hear of Glenda's passing. Her entire professional career was dedicated to public service, whether as a teacher, community organizer or state representative. Anita and I send our thoughts and prayers to her family and loved ones," Governor Rick Perry said in a prepared statement.

House Speaker Tom Craddick and his wife, Nadine, were surprised and saddened by her death.

"She was a wonderful colleague, a warm friend and a great representative to the people of District 29," Speaker Craddick said in a prepared statement. "She will be sorely missed by all."

Dawson was running for reelection against Dr. Anthony A. Dinovo, a Democrat.

To read more about Representative Dawson, click here.

MyCapitol.com expresses its condolences to the family of Representative Dawson.

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September 12, 2006
Tuesday 6:45:34 A.M. CST

Polls:  Perry Not Assured of Victory

The scuttlebutt among capitol insiders and lobbyists is that Governor Perry enjoys a huge advantage in his re-election campaign. He has lots of money, and he had several legislative victories during the regular and special sessions.  However, the Rasmussen and Zogby polls released yesterday reveal that he is still vulnerable in a four-person race.

Political polls provide a snapshot in time about how voters feel.  The questions that are asked and the methodology that is used could skew the results.  They are not an exact science, and one should always remember the "ABC Rule" of polling:  All But Certain.  When polls are favorable, candidates embrace them.  When they are not, they shun them.

The Rasmussen and Wall Street Journal/Zogby polls show Governor Perry at 33 percent and 31 percent, respectively.  Although these numbers can still assure victory, they may cause some uneasiness in Perry's campaign.  The Perry and Strayhorn campaigns have already challenged the methodology used to discredit the polls.

A lot more polling is expected in what has been called a "crazy" governor's race. But this is Texas.  We are like a whole other country.

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September 11, 2006
Monday 10:11:15 P.M. CST

President Bush Addresses Nation on 9/11

Earlier tonight, President Bush solemnly addressed the nation and talked about the "struggle of civilization" that free nations are facing in the war on terror.

To read the full speech, click here.
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September 11, 2006
Monday 10:01:15 P.M. CST

Texas Senator's Office Evacuated

A letter filled with a white substance caused Senator Mike Jackson's League City to be evacuated today, the fifth anniversary of 9/11.  The sender of the letter indicated that the substance was anthrax.  Testing by local and federal officials revealed that the substance was a sugar derivative.

To read more, click here.
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August 22, 2006
Tuesday 6:15:35 A.M. CST

And Then There Was One
Sugarland Mayor David Wallace announced yesterday that he was ending his write-in candidacy for the race in Congressional District 22.

To read more, click here.
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August 22, 2006
Tuesday 6:14:15 A.M. CST

Perry Task Force to Review Property Appraisal System
Texas Governor Rick Perry has appointed a task force to study the property appraisal system in Texas.

"Earlier this year, we provided Texas property owners with the largest property tax cut in state history - a 33 percent reduction in their school property tax rates over the next two years," Perry said. "Now we need to address the rest of that equation: the silent tax hikes of rising appraisals."

To find out more, click here.
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August 22, 2006
Tuesday 6:13:43 A.M. CST

It's Party Time!
The Princeton Review rankings are out and The University of Texas of Austin, Texas' flagship school, was voted the "Best Party School" in the country.

University leaders are not taking the ranking seriously.

Hiccup'em!
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August 18, 2006
Friday 12:21:45 A.M. CST

Can You Spell Dr. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs?
The Republican precinct chairmen in Congressional District 22 have selected Houston councilwoman Dr. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs as the write-in candidate that will receive support from the Texas Republican Party.

David Wallace, the mayor of Sugarland, has already filed as a write-in candidate.  No word yet on whether he will drop out of the race or continue with his campaign.

Bill Miller, a close ally of the Republican leadership and a principal in the lobbying powerhouse HillCo Partners, recently told the Houston Chronicle that  "[t]he whole write-in theory is ludicrous. It is handing the seat to the Democrats. Republicans cannot win this seat with a write-in candidate, I don't care what name they write in."
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August 17, 2006
Thursday 6:13:45 A.M. CST

Wanted: Democrats on K Street
The employment tide seems to be turning for well-connected Democrats who wish to bank on their congressional access and connections.

With the possibility of a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House and some gains in the U.S. Senate, lobbying firms on K Street - the Rodeo Drive of lobbyists in Washington D.C. - are seeking candidates who bleed blue   For many years, Democrats were shunned from high-paying lobbying positions.  The K Street Project - Tom Delay's pet project to increase the number of GOP lobbyists at major law firms and trade associations -was the dominant force in lobbying employment circles.

To read more about the change, click here.
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August 17, 2006
Thursday 6:03:15 A.M. CST

Dissention in the GOP Ranks
Finding a write-in candidate that the Texas Republican Party can support  for the race in Tom Delay's old district (CD 22) has brought about dissention.

A closed-meeting is scheduled today to discuss which candidate will get the nod of support from the party, but some influential Republicans are urging a boycott.

To read more, click here.
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August 9, 2006
Wednesday 5:49:35 A.M. CST

Republican Write-In Faces Uphill Battle
Tom Delay's decision to withdraw yesterday from the race in Congressional District 22 probably brought more headaches than smiles to the voters in the district.  Delay blamed his decision to withdraw on the federal courts, but he didn't specifically criticize the conservative judges by name who decided to uphold the U.S. Constitution.  If Delay thinks that Justice Antonin Scalia and Fifth Circuit Judge Edith Clement are flaming liberals, then he is out of touch with reality.  They are conservative, strict constructionists.

Delay's withdrawal sets several events in motion. The most important one is finding a single write-in candidate that the voters in the district can support.  Good luck to the Republican Party of Texas!

Even though Delay said he would support a write-in candidate to replace him, others see a write-in candidacy as a futile exercise.

"The whole write-in theory is ludicrous," Bill Miller, a principal in the lobbying firm HillCo Partners, told the Houston Chronicle.  "It is handing the seat to the Democrats. Republicans cannot win this seat with a write-in candidate, I don't care what name they write in."

Miller has personally advised Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick and other GOP leaders and candidates.

A write-in candidacy is so challenging that it may not succeed.

"While that's about the only route left open to Republicans, they'll find it daunting to pull that off," Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, told the Houston Chronicle.

The deadline for write-in candidates to register with the secretary of state is August 29.  Stay tuned to find out who decides to throw their hat in the ring.
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August 7, 2006
Monday 10:29:23 P.M. CST

Republicans Raise White Flag
Acknowledging that they were outlawyered by Texas Democrats, the Republican Party of Texas abandoned its efforts to overturn the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals' decision that required Tom Delay's name to remain on the ballot for the November election.

"The Democratic Party has been successful in picking the nominee of the Republican Party," James Bopp, the attorney for the Republican Party of Texas, told the Austin American-Statesman.

The decision to abandon an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court came after Justice Antonin Scalia, who reviews emergency appeals in the 5th Circuit and is extremely conservative, dealt a fatal judicial blow by refusing to stay the 5th Circuit's decision issued last week.  The appeals court upheld a ruling by U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks that held that Tina Benkiser, the chair of the Texas Republican Party, unconstitutionally imposed an inhabitancy requirement on Delay.

Realistically, Delay has two options:  run or withdraw.

If he withdraws, the Republican Party of Texas cannot replace him.  Nick Lampson, the Democratic nominee, becomes the de facto congressman of the district.

If he runs, Democrats will have a field day by making him the poster child of corruption and scandal. While it is still possible that Delay could win his race in his district, the same may not be true for other candidates across the country.  Several candidates running for the U.S. House and Senate have begun running ads that distance themselves from President Bush and the Republican Party.  Adding Delay to the mix could make the situation more complicated.  In short, national Republicans do not want anything to do with Tom Delay.  

Congressional Democrats need to win 15 seats to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.  They are confident they can win at least 12.  With Delay on the ballot, the number of victories could increase.

If TomDelay.com becomes an active website again, you know he is running.

Stay tuned.

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 August 6, 2006
Sunday 11:39:55 P.M. CST

Texas Redistricting Lowdown
They came, they drew, they left.  And now for the spin.

The map that was released Friday afternoon by the three-judge panel was not a major surprise to court observers who heard the legal arguments and the judges' comments.  The highlight came early on in the proceeding when Judge Higginbotham offered his "suggestion" of how the map should be redrawn - unite Webb County, proceed counter-clockwise to fix the adjoining districts, move District 25 closer to central Texas, and increase the number of Latino voters in District 23, Congressman Henry Bonilla's district.  After the suggestion it became apparent that the map had already been drawn or very close to being finalized by the panel.

The map prepared by the panel rejected the recommendations by the State Defendants - Governor Perry, Speaker Craddick, and Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst.  It didn't pair any incumbents and made modifications that had Texas Democrats smiling.

Here's the lowdown:

District 23
Status:  Marginally Republican; Endangered Species List

The reason the panel had to convene again was to fix CD 23, which violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act because it denied Hispanics the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice.  Approximately 100,000 Hispanics had been transferred out in 2003 to shore up the election prospects of Congressman Henry Bonilla, the only Hispanic Republican in the Congressional Delegation. Interestingly, Congressman Bonilla was not even present at the court hearing to see what the judges were going to do to his district.  On Friday he issued a statement saying he was "ecstatic" about the new configuration.

The new district includes the south side of San Antonio, which is primarily Hispanic. It includes the west Texas portion that was in his district, except for some hill country counties that were placed in District 21, currently represented by Lamar Smith.

Even though the district is 61% Hispanic, Bonilla has a huge financial advantage.  He has more than $2.2 million in the bank and time on his side.  The primaries will be held on Election Day in November.  That doesn't give a Democratic opponent much time to organize and raise money.

The writing is on the wall in this district.  A well-financed Hispanic Democrat may give Bonilla a run for his money.

Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez will announce this week whether he plans to run for the seat.

District 28
Status:  Safe Democratic Seat

Henry Cuellar has a strong, safe seat.  Webb County was reunited and the new district includes Starr County and the southern part of Hidalgo County, which are "dark blue" areas.  Cuellar still retains some counties close to south central Texas.

No primary challenger is expected.  However, Valley newspapers are reporting that he may get a challenger from Hidalgo County.  

District 25
Status:  Safe Democratic Seat

Congressman Lloyd Doggett has more lives than a cat.  

No matter how many times Republicans try to oust him, he always dodges the redistricting bullet.  The latest attempt was in the State Defendants' plan, which was flatly rejected by the judges.  The panel gave Doggett a very compressed district, which includes 50% of Travis County, his home base.  He will have a couple of new counties to the east of Travis County that vote Republican, but the addition of Travis County will offset any Republican votes.

The people in the Lower Rio Grande Valley will miss his representation, but the district had to be altered to comply with the U.S. Supreme Court decision.

District 21
Status:  Safe Republican Seat

A couple of counties from Bonilla's old CD 23 were added to Congressman Lamar Smith's district.  Smith still continues to represent UT-Austin, which Doggett used to represent.

The district is solid red.

District 15
Status:  Safe Democratic Seat

Congressman Ruben Hinojosa lost a couple of counties near central Texas, and his district was compressed.  His district incorporates the northern part of Hidalgo County, which is perhaps the "bluest" county in the State.  Hinojosa, whose family owns H&H Foods, will probably not get a primary challenger.

The final round of congressional redistricting is over.

2011 is just around the corner!
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 August 2, 2006
Wednesday 11:59:34 P.M. CST

WWTJD?
All political eyes will be watching the Thornberry Building in Austin, Texas at 9 a.m. tomorrow morning to get an answer to the following question:  "What Will The Judges Do?"

Of course, the question refers to the congressional redistricting map, part of which was declared unconstiutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in June.  At issue is how to fix District 23, currently represented by U.S. Congressman Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio).  The Supremes found that the district violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which was reauthorized for another 25 years last week.  The State Defendants, the Plaintiffs, and interested congressional members submitted remedial maps for the three-judge panel to consider. However, the judges will take the maps under advisement and eventually draw a map that complies with both Sections 2 and 5 of the Voting Rights Act.  

If history is a guide, the three-judge panel will take a minimalist approach in redrawing the map.  The case law allows a court to remedy the violation while at the same time respecting the policy preferences of the Texas Legislature. In all likelihood, the court will redraw the least number of districts (perhaps 4 or 5) and maintain the partisan balance that existed in the original map.

Look out for the following tomorrow:

We bb or Webb County

The Supremes expressed concern that Webb County was split into two to create District 23.  To remedy the constitutional violation, Webb County could become whole again and adjustments could be made to the surrounding districts to address the ripple effect.

"The Battle of the Henrys"

Henry Bonilla v. Henry Cuellar?  This is entirely possible.  While pairing of incumbents is generally frowned upon, the court may need to draw a map that pairs the two Henrys in order to comply with the Supreme Court decision.

Siete

The American G.I. Forum and LULAC have advocated the creation of a 7th Latino opportunity district. The original map only had 6.  It will be interesting to see the court's reaction to this proposal.

Dicing the "Fajita Strip"

District 25, currently represented by U.S. Congressman Lloyd Doggett, stretches from Austin, Texas to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.  It looks like a long "fajita strip".  Even though the U.S. Supreme Court did not strike down the district, the justices hinted that they expected the configuration to change after District 23 is redrawn to cure the constitutional infirmities.  It is possible that the district will move up from the Valley to make it more compact.

More updates forthcoming.

Time to have some fun!!!!!

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June 28, 2006
Wednesday 10:38:12 P.M. CST

Supremes:  Map Violates Minority Voting Rights
A congressional map adopted by the Texas Legislature in 2003 contains a district that violates the voting rights of Hispanics, the U.S. Supreme Court concluded in LULAC et al. v. Perry, et al.  

According to the court, Congressional District 23, currently represented by Congressman Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio), violates Section 2 under the Voting Rights Act because it denies Hispanics the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice.

Even though the court invalidated Congressional District 23, the court noted "[t] districts in south and west Texas will have to be redrawn to remedy the violation in District 23..." Thus, more than one district will be impacted, including Congressional District 25.  Congressional District 25 adjoins Congressional District 23 and currently looks like a "fajita strip".  It is represented by Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Austin.  The "ripple effect" of changing Congressional District 23 is not known, but Congressman Bonilla told the Dallas Morning News that the effect will be "big".  

The court sent the case back to the three-judge panel to address the legal infirmities in the plan.  Attorney General Greg Abbott said earlier that the procedure and timeline for curing the legal deficiencies will be addressed by the panel at a later date.  Texas Governor Rick Perry has publicly stated that it is the duty of the Texas Legislature to draw congressional lines and not a court of law.  Governor Perry has not indicated whether another special session will be called this summer to address congressional redistricting, but he did indicate that he would work with Attorney General Greg Abbott to address the legal issues raised in the map.

In addition to striking Congressional District 23, the court upheld the practice of mid-decade redistricting and also ruled that the map was not politically gerrymandered.

A detailed Q&A on the opinion will be available later at TexasRedistricting.com.


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June 22, 2006
Thursday 5:35:22 A.M. CST

Redistricting Hurricane Coming to Texas
Brace yourself.  It's coming and FEMA cannot help!

The current term of the U.S. Supreme Court ends next week, and the Supremes coud be issuing evacuation orders for some or all members of the Texas congressional delegation.  Or they may issue no orders at all.

Traditionally, the U.S. Supreme Court waits until the last week to issue its most controversial decisions, including redistricting.  For example, the last three major Texas cases that dealt with the Ten Commandments display on the Capitol grounds (upheld), homosexual sodomy (struck down), and high school prayer (struck down) were all issued during the last week.  

The Texas redistricting case will be closely watched because it will set a precedent for the next round of redistricting, which is four years away.  Coincidentally, the U.S. House of Representatives delayed reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act yesterday because the Texas congressional delegation wants changes made, especially those pertaining to redistricting.  The U.S. Supreme Court's decision will undoubtedly influence how the U.S. House of Representatives proceeds on the Voting Rights Act.

The Texas redistricting case is a complex one.  One of the key issues that will be decided is whether mid-decade redistricting is constitutional.  If the court allows mid-decade redistricting, then the new congressional plan, spearheaded by former Majority Leader Tom Delay could stand, with some exceptions.  The two congressional districts that caused some judicial heartburn were the ones created for U.S. Congressmen Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)  and Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio).  Congressman Doggett's distrtict looks like a "fajita strip".  It stretches from the rich neighborhoods in Austin to the poor communities in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.  Justice Kennedy, a key swing vote, expressed serious doubts about this district because it was packed with Hispanic voters.  Thousands of Hispanic voters were moved from Congressman Bonilla's disrict to create Congressman Doggett's district.  To redistricting observers, the removal of minority voters from Congressman Henry Bonilla's district is the "Achilles' Heel" of the map.  

If one or both of these districts is struck down, there will be a major ripple effect that would require the redrawing of some districts by either the Texas Legislature (Yes, another possible session this summer!) or a court of law.  On the other hand, if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the elimination of former Representative Martin Frost's district in Dallas was illegal, the entire map may have to be redrawn.

Stay tuned.

More detailed analysis will be available at TexasRedistricting.com.


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May 16, 2006
Tuesday 9:50:34 A.M. CST

Sine Die, Adios, See You Later!
They came, they worked, they succeeded.

See you in January!

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May 11, 2006
Thursday 8:27:10 A.M. CST

All Eyes on the Texas House
In a unanimous vote, the Texas Senate passed CSHB 1 late last night.  The property tax cut/education reform bill now goes to the Texas House for concurrence.  

The Texas Senate also passed CSHB 5, which will generate approximately $750 million in new tobacco taxes.  It too was sent to the Texas House.

Legislative insiders anticipate that the Texas House may concur on both bills and send them to Governor Rick Perry this weekend or early next week.

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst said last night that Governor Perry will expand the call today to include tuition revenue bonds for universities.  Committee meetings have already been scheduled in the Texas Senate.

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May 10, 2006
Wednesday 6:38:22 A.M. CST

Day of Deliverance
A lawmaker's worst enemy during a special session is time.

With May 16 around the corner, the Texas Senate is hoping to finally bring HB 1, the property tax cut bill, up for consideration today.  Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst is confident that the bill will garner two-thirds support.  However, as of yesterday evening, there was still no consensus among senators on how to solve the controversy over Amendment 4A, the Duncan/Staples amendment that increases equity between property-poor and property-rich school districts.  Several education groups have endorsed the amendment, but not HB 1 in its entirety.  

For the last two days, Senator Florence Shapiro of Plano has had the procedural advantage by garnering 11 votes to keep the bill from coming up for consideration.  Under the Texas Senate's traditional "Two Thirds Rule", eleven senators can block a motion to suspend the regular order of business in order to prevent a bill from being considered.  However, there is an exception to that rule.  Procedurally, House bills may be considered on Wednesdays without regard to the "Two-Thirds Rule."  Thus, the bill may come up today irrespective of Senator Shapiro's support to block the bill.   Ignoring the "Two Thirds Rule" tradition in the Texas Senate may facilitate the passage of controversial legislation, but it may also harbor ill feelings among members.

If HB 1 is debated today and floor amendments are added as expected, the bill will go to a conference committee to resolve the differences between the original version of HB 1, commonly referred to as the "Get Outta Dodge Bill," and the new substitute.  To capitol insiders, it is in the conference committee where Texas laws are really made.  Depending on the disputes between House and Senate members, resolving the differences in conference may take longer than May 16, the last day of the session.  Speaker Tom Craddick has said that he would prefer to have a bill that the House can concur on instead of going to conference.

Besides HB 1, the tobacco tax increase bill, HB 5, has also been mired in controversy.  The votes to bring it to the floor for consideration are also lacking. If the exception to the "Two Thirds Rule" is used, the bill may also be debated today.

The Texas Senate convenes today at 11 a.m.  Barring any last minute surprises, today would be a good day to watch the lawmaking process in Texas.

You can view the Texas Senate's proceedings by clicking on the following link.

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May 9, 2006
Tuesday 6:52:10 A.M. CST

Tick Tock, Tick Tock
HB 1, the property tax cut bill that needs to pass this special session, hit a procedural roadblock yesterday when it was not considered in the Texas Senate.  Senator Florence Shapiro, the sponsor of the bill, has told members that she has the necessary 11 votes to block the bill from coming up for consideration.

Senators are still trying to negotiate a compromise to soften the effects of the Duncan/Staples amendment, an amendment that would increase equity between property-rich and property-poor school districts.  Both Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and Speaker Tom Craddick are concerned about the costs of the amendment.  But Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst believes that a deal can be struck.  Speaker Craddick hopes that a compromise can be reached so that the Texas House could concur on the Senate amendments and avoid a conference committee, which may not be able to reach a compromise before May 16, the last day of the special session.  

"One of the problems we have is that we've got too much time remaining," Dewhurst told the Houston Chronicle. "When we get closer to a deadline, people work faster."

Legislative insiders expected Governor Rick Perry to expand the call of the special session yesterday to consider other issues such as tuition revenue bonds.  However, no announcement was made.  Without any significant progress on HB 1, it is unlikely that the governor would add additional items to the call.

Besides HB 1, HB 5 and HB 2 are still awaiting Senate approval.  HB 5 would generate approximately $750 million in new tobacco taxes.  The bill passed out of committee last Friday, but it, too, may also lack the necessary notes to bring it up for consideration in the Texas Senate.  HB 2 was sent back to the Texas Senate last week because of a technical effect.  

On a brighter note, the Texas Senate and Texas House approved the conference committee report to HB 4, a bill that relates to the valuation of used-car vehicles and the "liars affidavit".  It has been sent to Governor Perry for his signature.

The Senate Finance Committee will meet today to consider Senate Bill 6, a bill that would amend HB 3, the reform franchise tax bill currently awaiting the governor's signature.  Speaker Craddick has already said that the bill is unconstitutional and will not be considered in the Texas House.  Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst disagrees.  If the Senate passes SB 6, the bill may enter a procedural blackhole in the Texas House and never see the light of day.

Stay tuned.

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May 8, 2006
Monday 6:54:56 A.M. CST

Special Session Lowdown
Whew!

With just over a week left before the end of the Third Called Special Session, the Texas Senate plans to debate HB 1 (property tax cuts) and HB 5 (tobacco increases) this week.  It has set both bills on today's regular calendar. The Senate already passed an unamended version of HB 3 (reform franchise tax), and that bill is awaiting Governor Rick Perry's signature.  HB 2 (dedication of future tax revenues) and HB 4 (vehicle sales taxes) are still pending.  Last week, Speaker Tom Craddick sent HB 2 back to the Texas Senate after he sustained a "point of order" because the bill violated House rules.  According to an article in the Dallas Morning News, Craddick consulted his horoscope before sustaining the point of order.

All eyes will be on HB 1 today, which experienced a temporary flatline last week when its bill sponsor, Senator Florence Shapiro, walked out of the Senate Finance Committee after she was not recognized to pull down her committee substitute to HB 1.  A withdrawal of the substitute would have been the death knell of the special session.  When the chairman of the committee, Senator Steve Ogden, refused to recognize her, five other GOP senators joined the walkout to protest what some considered a "hijacking" of her bill.  

Shapiro's main concern was an amendment that was offered by Senator Robert Duncan that equalizes the wealth level in enrichment pennies between property-rich and property-poor school districts.  The amendment was added on Friday afternoon after a contentious debate in committee.  HB 1 eventually passed out of committee, even though some members voted against it or voted present-not voting.

According to Senator Odgen, HB 1 is the only bill that must pass this session because it would address the concerns raised by the Texas Supreme Court in the West Orange-Cove lawsuit.  In short, it could provide school districts with "meaningful discretion" and take the state out of the courtroom.  Shapiro's substitute uses some of the surplus to lower property taxes, increases teacher pay raises, and also implements educational reforms.  

However, after Friday's intraparty committee squabble, the fate of HB 1 is uncertain.  Senator Shapiro has said that she will not bring up the bill for consideration this week on the Senate floor.  Additionally, if someone else tries to bring up the bill for consideration, she has publicly stated that she has the necessary 11 votes to block the suspension of the regular order of business under the Texas Senate's traditional "Two-Thirds Rule".   If she indeed has the votes to delay the bill, there may not be enough time this special session to get the bill passed.  

Even if the bill were to pass the Texas Senate early this week, it would be sent back to the Texas House for a concurrence on the Senate Amendments.  If the bill's author, Representative Warren Chisum, does not concur, then a conference committee will be appointed to iron out the differences. Sending the bill to conference would create more uncertainty.

The current special session ends on May 16.

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April 18, 2006
Tuesday 5:03:12 A.M. CST

Madla to Resign from Texas Senate
Texas Senator Frank Madla (D-San Antonio), who was recently defeated in the Democratic Primary by State Representative Carlos Uresti (D-San Antonio), has informed Texas Governor Rick Perry that he is resigning from the Texas Senate effective May 31.  

"After many hours of thoughtful consideration and reflection, I ultimately decided that after 33 years of prioritizing public service, it was time to put my family first," Madla told Perry in the letter.

Perry does not plan to call a special election to fill the seat.

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April 18, 2006
Tuesday 5:02:45 A.M. CST

Perry Calls for More Property Tax Relief
After Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn announced yesterday that Texas has an $8.2 billion surplus, Texas Governor Rick Perry said that he would like to see more property tax relief.

The governor's office released the following statement:

"The news that Texas has $8.2 billion in surplus funds means the economy has prospered under Gov. Perry's leadership and the legislature's wise fiscal stewardship. With the comptrollers announcement today that the surplus has nearly doubled in just two months, the governor's preference would be for legislators to use a portion of the additional surplus to lower taxes even more under the Perry–Sharp plan."

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April 3, 2006
Monday 10:53:41 P.M. CST

Tom Delay to Resign from Congress
In a surprising announcement, Tom Delay told his Republican colleagues tonight that he will be resigning from Congress later this spring.

To read more about this story, click here.

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March 28, 2006
Tuesday 7:33:04 A.M. CST

White House Bombshell:  Andrew Card Resigns
Andrew Card, President Bush's Chief of Staff and confidante of the Bush family, has resigned.  Josh  Bolten, the current budget director, will replace him.

Stay tuned for more developments.

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March 1, 2006
Wednesday 10:41:33 P.M. CST

Kennedy Holds Key to Texas Redistricting Battle
Congressional District 25, currently represented by Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Austin, has been called a "fajita strip," "bacon strip", "land bridge" and a "long walking stick" because it stretches from Austin to the Mexican border.  But to Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy the district is more than a geographical anomaly.  It represents an "affront and an insult" on the voting rights of minorities in South Texas.  In short, Kennedy noted that the district was a "serious Shaw violation", referring to Shaw v. Reno (1993), which allows challenges of racial gerrymandering if a district appears odd or "bizarre."

Kennedy's comments were perhaps the harshest words exchanged today at the U.S. Supreme Court, where the State of Texas argued that the map created in 2003 is constitutional.  Opponents argued that the map was an example of excessive political gerrymandering and illegal because it was done mid-decade and violated the voting rights of minorities in South Texas.

Various press reports indicate that the justices were not completely convinced that mid-decade redistricting should never occur or that the map was excessively partisan.  However, what raised eyebrows was Justice Kennedy's questions regarding the new Congressional District 25 that was created by removing 100,000 minority voters from Congressional District 23, currently represented by Congressman Henry Bonilla.  Kennedy did not view the Texas Legislature's decision to move 100,000 minority voters to District 25 to help Congressman Henry Bonilla, a Republican, get reelected as a legitimate exercise.  Instead, he found it insulting and probably illegal.  

Kennedy's comments could be indicative that he may vote with the other four liberal justices to invalidate certain districts, as opposed to invalidating the entire map.  If Districts 23 and 25 are found to be illegal, the March primary results could be nullified and a federal court or the Texas Legislature may have to correct the legal deficiencies identified in the map. Yes, it is possible that another contentious special session may occur on congressional redistricting.

Correcting a redistricting map will not be easy because of the "ripple effect" that will occur when modifications are made.  Changing Congressional Districts 23 and 25 may actually bring about changes to more than 15 districts.  If Congressional District 25 is eliminated and Congressional District 23 is redrawn Congressman Henry Bonilla may be challenging Congressman Henry Cuellar in a future election.  The "Battle of the Henrys" may prove to be very interesting.  More importantly, any changes to Congressional District 23, may relegate the newly created "Midland District," which was strongly supported by Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick, to a footnote in redistricting history.

A decision on the case is expected in June.

For more information, go to texasredistricting.com.

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February 22, 2006
Wednesday 7:00:03 P.M. CST

HELL NO!
President Bush likes straight shooters - people who get to the point.

Today, Congresswoman Sue Myrick (R- North Carolina) let the President know how she felt about the deal to transfer six U.S. ports to a company controlled by the United Arab Emirates.

Dear Mr. President:

In regards to selling ports to the United Arab Emirates, not just NO - but HELL NO!

Ouch!

To read the original letter, click here.

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February 22, 2006
Wednesday 6:26:03 A.M. CST

Bush to Congress:  Bring it On!
The multi-billion dollar deal to transfer authority to Dubai Ports World to manage six major ports in the United States has created an unprecedented bipartisan political firestorm.  President Bush has already approved the deal and has threatened to veto any legislation to derail the transfer.  President Bush issued his veto threat after Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tennessee) told reporters that he would introduce legislation to delay or scuttle the deal because it raises national security concerns.  Several Democratic senators have also indicated that they will file emergency legislation.  

President Bush was baffled by the uproar since the ports had been previously controlled by a British company.  Opponents note that Dubai Ports World is based in the United Arab Emirates, which was the home of two of the 9/11 terrorists.

To read more, click here.

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February 22, 2006
Tuesday 6:09:43 A.M. CST

Perry and Strayhorn Clash on Education
Texas Governor Rick Perry and Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn sent out dueling press releases detailing the status of public education in Texas.  

Perry said that Texas has made major gains.  Stayhorn, an independent candidate challenging Perry, countered that the state of education in Texas is abysmal.  Perry later challenged Strayhorn's statements.

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February 22, 2006
Tuesday 6:01:27 A.M. CST

Dewhurst Appoints Commission Members
Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst announced appointments to the Study Commission on Transportation Financing.  Dewhurst appointed Senator John Carona (R-Dallas) as Joint Chairman, and Senator Eddie Lucio, Jr. (D-Brownsville) and Michael Stevens of Houston as members of the commission.
"The members I have appointed are all strong leaders representing diverse parts of the state, and they will help the committee research and make recommendations on how to better finance our state's highway system," Dewhurst said. "I look forward to working with each of them as we prepare for future transportation funding needs."
Dewhurst appoints three of the nine members on the committee, including two senators and one general public representative.

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February 22, 2006
Tuesday 5:56:33 A.M. CST

Craddick Makes Committee Assignments
House Speaker Tom Craddick has made the following committee appointments to fill the void left by former State Representative Todd Baxter (R-Austin).  Baxter now lobbies for the cable industry.

Representative Tracy O. King (D-Batesville) was appointed to the Edwards Aquifer Legislative Oversight Committee.  Representative Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) was appointed to the House Committee on Regulated Industries. Representative Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas) was appointed to the Local and Consent Calendars Committee.

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February 22, 2006
Tuesday 5:46:10 A.M. CST

U.S. Supreme Court to Consider Colorado Redistricting Case
The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to consider a challenge to a court drawn redistricting plan.  The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in the Texas redistricting case on March 1.

To read the story, click here.

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February 21, 2006
Tuesday 6:26:45 A.M. CST

Taxpayers Willing to Pay More for Education
A poll conducted by the Dallas Morning News shows that taxpayers are willing to pay more taxes to fund public education.  

To read more about the poll, click here.

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February 21, 2006
Tuesday 6:26:10 A.M. CST

Hurricane Evacuation Task Force Submits Final Report
The Hurricane Evacuation Task Force has submitted its report and recommendations to Texas Governor Rick Perry.

To read the report, click here.

Governor Perry issued the following press release.

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February 20, 2006
Monday 6:46:16 A.M. CST

Valley Political and Social Club Shutting Down
For those who follow South Texas politics, the McAllen Tripa Club has been a phenomenon.  Originally started in 1959 by Jesse Trevino, 80, to promote his business, the Club has grown into a networking and social hub that has helped many from different social classes and educational levels.

To read more about the Club, click here.  

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February 14, 2006
Tuesday 9:41:25 P.M. CST

Howard Gets Lots of Love from HD 48 Voters
Valentine's Day turned out to be full of love for Democratic candidate Donna Howard in HD 48 after she defeated Republican Ben Bentzin in a run-off by 3,337 votes!   The official results from the Secretary of State's office show that Howard received 12,618 votes (57.62%)  and Bentzin received 9,281 votes (42.38%).

Howard will serve out the remaining term of former Representative Todd Baxter, who recently resigned to become a lobbyist.  She will participate in the upcoming special session on school finance.

Howard and Bentzin may face each other again in November.  

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 February 6, 2006
Monday 1:45:15 A.M. CST

Another Session on Congressional Redistricting?
On March 1 at 1 p.m. (EST), the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in one of the most contentious redistricting plans ever adopted in Texas - Plan 1374C.  This is the map that was adopted by the Texas Legislature in 2003 to replace a court-drawn plan - Plan 1151C- that essentially left Democrats in charge of the congressional delegation.  Plan 1151C was developed by a three-judge panel after the Texas Legislature failed to redraw congressional districts during the 77th  Regular Session (2001).

The decision to consolidate all four cases challenging the congressional map and to expedite arguments in the case came as a surprise to many capitol and political observers because the U.S. Supreme Court had previously conferred five times, and it had not issued a decision on whether to accept the appeals. Coincidentally, one week before the U.S. Supreme Court was to confer for the sixth time, the Washington Post ran a front page article about a secret Department of Justice staff memo that had overwhelmingly rejected what is now considered "Tom Delay's Map", Plan 1374C.  Ultimately, the staff recommendation was quashed by political appointees who agreed that the map was legal.

Whether the Washington Post article influenced the decision to hear the case is anybody's guess. However, the case will be closely watched because it will set a major precedent for the next round of redistricting, which will occur in about four years.  

The arguments raised in the court briefs are lengthy and complex.  For those who are not familiar with redistricting law, the concepts and theories may be foreign. What is interesting, however, is the relief that is sought by the parties.

As noted in the State of Texas' brief, three of the appellants seek to have Plan 1374C ("Tom Delay's Map") replaced with the original court-drawn plan - Plan 1151C.  These appellants believe that the Texas Legislature cannot re-redistrict a court-drawn plan.  In short, mid-decade redistricting, in their view, should be prohibited on legal and policy grounds. One of the appellants-American GI Forum-wants the U.S. Supreme Court to order the creation of an additional Hispanic district.  

On the other hand, the State of Texas has asked that the U.S. Supreme Court remand the map back to the Texas Legislature to fix any legal problems, unless the Court rules that the Texas Legislature may never replace a court-drawn plan.  The remand request is based on extensive case law that allows state legislatures to make policy preferences in drawing a congressional map.   If the U.S. Supreme Court agrees with the State's request, a special session on congressional  redistricting may be necessary to comply the Court's order, which may be issued during the next few months.  

For additional information, go to texasredistricting.com.

Stay tuned.

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February 1, 2006
Wednesday 9:42:55 P.M. CST

Alito Shows True Colors, Splits with Conservatives
Newly confirmed U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito raised eyebrows late Wednesday night when he refused to side with conservative Justices Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas to allow Missouri to execute a death row inmate who was challenging lethal injection.  Missouri had requested that a stay be lifted to allow the execution to proceed at 12 midnight.

Click here to read the story.

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February 1, 2006
Wednesday 7:46:16 A.M. CST

Tax Commission To Propose New Business Tax
With a June 1 deadline approaching to fix school finance, former Comptroller John Sharp and current chair of  Governor Rick Perry's Texas Tax Reform Commission told school administrators yesterday at their annual midwinter conference that the Texas Legislature may need to adopt a 1% business tax on gross receipts or gross income to raise the revenue necessary to fund public schools.

Sharp noted that any business tax that is proposed would replace the current franchise tax, which is avoided by 90% of businesses due to loopholes in the law.  He also said that any new tax would allow businesses to make deductions for goods that are sold and employees who are hired.  Consumer taxes would also be considered as part of any proposal.

During the last two called special sessions, a tax bill that included a reformed franchise tax proposal was defeated by various business interests. Ultimately, the language in any proposed tax bill, which must originate in the Texas House of Representatives, will determine the level of opposition during the next called special session, which Governor Perry indicated may occur in late April or early May.    

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January 22, 2006
Sunday 9:06:56 A.M. CST

Tom Delay Ads to Run in Houston
At least one Houston television station has agreed to run revised ads from a special interest group that is critical of Tom Delay's activities and relationship with one-time superlobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Tom Delay's lawyers had convinced the Houston stations not to run the original ads because they were inaccurate.

To view the original and revised ads, click here.

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January 22, 2006
Sunday 8:54:34 A.M. CST

Perry Announces Special Election Date
From the Office of Texas Governor Perry:

Governor Rick Perry today announced Feb. 28, as the special election date to fill the vacancy for House District 106. The seat was left vacant today with the resignation of Rep. Ray Allen.

Candidates for this special election must file applications with the Secretary of State no later than Jan. 30. The early voting period for this special election will begin on Feb. 13. The state representative elected in this special election will serve the remainder of the two-year term. House District 106 is in the Dallas area.

The election was declared an emergency because a special legislative session on school finance must occur before June 1, the deadline for reform set by the Texas Supreme Court.

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January 22, 2006
Sunday 8:51:07 A.M. CST

Katrina E-mails Show Concern in Perry's Office

To read the story, click here.
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January 17, 2006
Tuesday 9:32:14 A.M. CST

U.S. Supreme Court Upholds Oregon Assisted-Suicide Law
In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has upheld Oregon's assisted-suicide law.

To read the story, click here.


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January 8, 2006
Sunday 11:15:23 P.M. CST

Hastert to Pursue Lobbying Reform
A day after former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Tx) announced that he would not seek the leadership position again, U.S. House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill) issued the following statement regarding lobbying reform:

"I intend to move forward aggressively and quickly to have the House of Representatives address lobbying reform.

"Over the past several months, I have spoken with many members about the need for such reforms. I have been encouraged by the breadth and boldness of their ideas. Now is the time for action.

"I have asked House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier to head this effort so that we can have important reforms ready as soon as possible. He will be reaching out to all the members of the House seeking their ideas for reform."

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January 8, 2006
Sunday 8:20:45 P.M. CST

SupremeCourtInsider.com Has Been Updated
The confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Justice nominee Samuel Alito, Jr. begins tomorrow.  Background information and relevant articles regarding his nomination have been posted at supremecourtinsider.com.  

The site will be updated as developments warrant.

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 January 8, 2006
Sunday 12:31:27 A.M. CST

Corruption Scandal Ends Tom Delay's Reign
Claiming that he has always acted in an ethical manner, indicted U.S. Congressman Tom Delay announced yesterday that he would not be seeking the position of majority leader in the U.S. House of Representatives.  However, he will continue to seek reelection to represent his constituents in Sugar Land, Texas. Delay's announcement came after his current GOP colleagues began circulating a petition Friday  to seek new elections in early February to replace the current leadership in order to proactively address the corruption concerns raised by the recent guilty pleas of former GOP superlobbyist Jack Abramoff.  Delay considers Abramoff a close friend and ally.  

To read the letter sent to Speaker Dennis Hastert, click here.

To read the letter sent to Delay's GOP colleagues, click here.

To read the reaction, click here.    

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December 12, 2005
Monday 9:45:27 P.M. CST

TexasRedistricting.com Has Been Updated
The announcement by the U.S. Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality of the 2003 congressional plan created by Representative Tom Delay (R-Sugar Land) has warranted more postings on TexasRedistricting.com.

To read the latest news, click here.  

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December 11, 2005
Sunday 8:53:15 A.M. CST

Novak Recounts Grand Jury Testimony
Viveca Novak, a Time reporter currently on a leave of absence, recounts her grand jury testimony about conversations she had with Robert Luskin, Karl Rove's attorney.

To read the article, go to the "Articles of Interest" section at  whitehouseinsider.com. The article is also posted at capitolinsider.com and capitolspotlight.com.

Fitzgerald has not decided whether or not to indict Kark Rove.

Note:  Novak is not related to columnist Bob Novak, who originally identified Valerie Plame in a column.

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December 10, 2005
Saturday 9:40:45 P.M. CST

Hernandez Wins Special Election Run-Off in Houston
The Houston Chronicle is reporting on its website that Ana Hernandez, a young attorney with Conoco Phillips and a former aide to the late Representative Joe Moreno and current Houston Representative Jessica Farrar, has won the special election for District 143.  Moreno died in a tragic accident on May 6, 2005.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Hernandez garnered 61.1% of the vote while her opponent Laura Salinas garnered 38.9%.  The official results of the race have not been posted on the Secretary of State's website.

Hernandez will be present when Texas Governor Rick Perry calls the next special session on school finance next spring.  Her vote will make a big difference.  During the Regular, 1st and 2nd called special sessions, key school finance legislation barely passed by one or two votes.  On several occasions, Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick cast the deciding vote.

Stay tuned for more announcements.

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November 17, 2005
Thursday 7:34:24 A.M. CST

Bob Woodward Drops Bombshell
A new development has occured in the CIA leak investigation.  

For additional information go to whitehouseinsider.com, capitolspotlight.com, or capitolinsider.com.

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September 28, 2005
Wednesday 1:54:23 P.M. CST

Grand Jury Hammers Tom Delay
U.S. Congressman Tom Delay has been indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas.

To read the indictment, click here.

Congressman Tom Delay has temporarily stepped down from his position as GOP majority leader.

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September 28, 2005
Wednesday 1:02:15 A.M. CST

Is it "Hammer Time"?
During the 1980s, former rap artist MC Hammer had a hit single titled "U Can't Touch This".  To excite his crowds, Hammer would dance on stage and say it is "Hammer Time".  Today, a Travis County grand jury will decide if it will be a different type of "Hammer Time" in Austin, Texas, as it considers indicting U.S. Congressman Tom Delay of Sugarland on conspiracy charges relating to corporate donations given to the Texans for a Republican Majority PAC.  Delay, nicknamed "The Hammer" because of his aggressive negotiating style, has proclaimed his innocence.

Indicting Congressman Delay was once considered a long shot; however, the Associated Press reported late tonight that legal observers familiar with the case are now concerned about the possibility of an indictment.  Two of Delay's associates were recently indicted on conspiracy charges.

To read the story about a possible indictment, click here.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's announcements.  
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August 4, 2005
Thursday 10:25:45 P.M. CST

Craddick:  Special Session of Perception Must End
In a surprising move, Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick suggested that the Texas Legislature adjourn sine die and go home even though there are approximately two weeks left in the Second Called Special Session.

Craddick issued the following statement earlier this afternoon:

"We have worked diligently to find a final compromise to HB 2 and HB 3. At this point in the special session, neither chamber has been able to pass any legislation, and it does not appear that they will. We are wasting time and money, and it is unproductive to prolong this process.

"In less than two weeks schools are set to start, and it is vital for them to have the updated textbooks necessary to do so. The funds for those books can only be granted through budget execution, which cannot be done while we are in session.

"I suggest we sine die, continue working together to reach an agreement, request the Texas Education Agency send us a list of reforms they can carry out without the Legislature changing the statutes, and wait to review the Supreme Court's ruling before formally meeting again."

In response to Craddick's action, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst issued a statement expressing his disappointment.  

"The senate education committee today passed out SB 8, a good bill which reforms our schools, raises teachers' salaries, pays for textbooks, and provides teacher benefits. I'm disappointed by Speaker Craddick's statement and the apparent unwillingness of the House to continue considering school reform, especially as the Senate Education Committee was passing SB 8. Because of today's comments by the Speaker, I will meet with Governor Perry and Senators to discuss our available options.

"As I have said today, I remain willing and ready to sign a letter with Governor Perry and Speaker Craddick to pay for textbooks either by appropriation this session or by budget execution authority which would allow publishers to ship textbooks immediately."

Governor Perry was also very critical of the Speaker's actions.

"I don't think there's ever been a war won waving a white flag," Perry told the Associated Press. "I think that we will work towards getting the absolutely best solution that we can given all the cards that they have to play with."

The Senate and House have adjourned until Monday at 2 p.m.  If both chambers adjourn sine die next week, Perry has the option to call another special session.

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July 1, 2005
Friday 9:55:25 A.M. CST

Sandra Day O'Connor Retires

Sandra Day O'Connor, the first woman appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, has retired.

She submitted the following three-sentence resignation letter this morning:

Dear President Bush:

"This is to inform you of my decision to retire from my position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the Untied States, effective upon the nomination and confirmation of my successor.

"It has been a great privilege, indeed, to have served as a member of the Court for 24 terms.

"I will leave it with enormous respect for the integiry of the Court and its role under our constitutional structure."

Sincerely,

Sandra Day O'Connor
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June 11, 2005
Saturday 8:54:35 A.M. CST

Veto Deadline Approaches

The Regular Session of the 79th Legislatured ended on May 30, but Texas Governor Rick Perry has until Father's Day, June 19, to veto legislation.

Stay tuned for a list of vetoed legislation.
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June 11, 2005
Saturday 8:53:15 A.M. CST

Strayhorn Certifies HB 10

Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn today completed her constitutional responsibility in reviewing House Bill 10, and announced the measure passed by the 79th Legislature is balanced.

"While I am certifying House Bill 10, that does not mean that I agree with all the budget decisions made," Strayhorn said.

House Bill 10 drained $1.9 billion out of the state's Rainy Day Fund, Strayhorn said.
"Since I was sworn in as Comptroller I have said we need to be like hard-working Texas families - spend wisely, invest wisely and save for a rainy day," she said. "That is not the case here."

This final piece of the budget puzzle brings the total appropriation for the 2006-07 biennium to $139.4 billion. House Bill 10 also appropriated an additional $2 billion (supplemental appropriation) for the current 2004-05 biennium.

The total amount appropriated by the 79th Legislature was $141.35 billion.
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January 30, 2005
Sunday 6:50:12 A.M. CST

Senate and Committee Assignments Announced
The committee assignments for the 79th Texas Legislature have been announced.

To view the Senate assignments, click here.

To view the House assignments, click here.

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January 1, 2005
Saturday 9:22:08 A.M. CST

House Speaker Appoints New Press Secretary
Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland) recently announced the appointment of Heather Tindall as press secretary and Alexis DeLee as deputy press secretary.  Both will assume their duties before the start of the 79th Regular Session of the Texas Legislature, which begins on January 11, 2005.

To read the press release issued by the Speaker, click here.

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December 15, 2004
Wednesday 9:57:10 P.M. CST

Sonny Lamb Pledges Campaign Reform
Note:  See the end of the article for more details.

Texas State Representative Sonny Lamb (R -Marfa), told Texas Farm Bureau members enjoying chicken fried steak and mashed potatoes Tuesday that he will work for “meaningful campaign reform” at the next session of the Texas legislature.

The second-term legislator speaking at the quarterly luncheon meeting of the regional representatives of the Texas Farmers Bureau at the Marfa Holiday Inn stressed the need to “outlaw the money lobbyists dole out,” and said he will introduce legislation to address the problem when the Texas legislature convenes January 11, 2005 in Austin.

Lamb asserted, “I'm not trying to outlaw lobbyists, just the money they give members. We all know that politics can't be cleaned up until we control the flow of money.”  

Lamb's bill which he said he intends to pre-file would limit individual campaign donations to $1,000 and PACS to $5,000.  It would completely prohibit campaign contributions from any registered lobbyist.  

In 2003, during the 78th Regular Session of the Texas legislature over 20 bills were filed to regulate lobby contributions to members of the legislature.   The representative observed that, “All were defeated, killed or failed to receive a hearing in committee. None ever reached the House floor.” Lamb added, “If the leadership had wanted to take money out of politics it could have done so.”

Jim Crockett, press secretary for Big Bob Bigbee, Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, responded in a phone interview that “thousands of good bills died” during the 140 day legislative session.
“To imply that the leadership opposes campaign finance reform distorts the role of the Speaker in the legislative process. Even a rookie rep (representative) knows that every bill is vetted during the committee process.   If a bill's sponsor can't get enough votes to pass his bill then it has no support. Maybe Rep. Lamb is getting just a little too much sun in Marfa,” he added.

L. D. Sparks, an independent legislative consultant, president and spokesperson for the 2,540 member Association of Lobby Executives, which includes lobbyists, was contacted about the issue but declined to comment.

Their next regularly scheduled meeting will be held January 17, 2005 at noontime at the Holiday Inn.

The Real News:

Sonny Lamb is not a real person but he is a real character in Lawrence Wright's new comedy "Sonny's Last Shot".

For more information, go to http://www.sonnyslastshot.com.

Hope to see you there!

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December 15, 2004
Wednesday 9:34:55 P.M. CST

Ronald Reagan at the Texas Capitol?
Former President Ronald Reagan may be posthumously honored at the Texas Capitol if a bill proposed by State Representative Martha Wong (R-Houston) becomes law.

Representative Wong has filed House Bill 110, which would name the semicircular drive around the Texas Capitol the "Ronald Reagan Circle."

No other bills have been filed to name it after a Texan.

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December 15, 2004
Wednesday 9:23:45 P.M. CST

Strayhorn:  Teachers Need a Raise
Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn today called for "a $3,000 pay raise now for Texas teachers, instituting a competitive, automatic pay increase every two years, and paying bonuses to all teachers whose low performing schools improve."

"Texas ranks 33rd in these United States in teachers' salaries. We can and we must do better," Strayhorn said. "Nearly 37,000 Texas teachers leave the classroom each year taking their skills to better-paying jobs or simply quitting. To ensure our state's economic prosperity, we must recruit, reward and retain highly qualified and experienced teachers who are fully certified, well paid and dedicated to a lifelong career with our most precious resource, our children."

As the state's chief fiscal officer charged with the supervision and management of all the state's fiscal concerns, Strayhorn released a Special Report, The Cost of Underpaying Texas Teachers.

"Turnover is highest where teacher pay is lowest," Strayhorn said. "I'd rather spend 1 billion dollars today investing in our future, than losing 13.3 billion dollars annually paying for failed policies of the past."

The report points out that students in classrooms with inexperienced or poorly prepared teachers are at greater risk of academic failure and dropping out of school.

"Tragically, as many as 50,000 students drop out of Texas schools every year," Strayhorn said. "These dropouts cost our Texas economy 11.4 billion dollars every year. Add incarceration and welfare costs of dropouts to the costs of teacher training and recruiting and other state and federal expenses, and the annual price tag jumps to $13.3 billion.

"Teacher turnover imposes direct costs both on school districts, which must foot the bill for recruiting and training replacements, and the state, which suffers a financial loss each time a teacher candidate prepared by Texas programs chooses not to pursue teaching as a career or to leave the profession after a short time," she said.

To keep teachers and students from leaving the classroom Strayhorn proposes that we:

Give all Texas teachers a $3,000 annual pay raise to put Texas salaries at or near the national average.
Automatically adjust the salary schedule every two years--fully funded by the state--to maintain competitive teacher salaries at or near the national average.
Expand mentor program and provide state-funded stipends for quality teachers mentoring new teachers.
Pay $2,500 bonuses to all teachers at low-performing schools that raise their state accountability rankings from Academically Unacceptable to Acceptable or better.

"The return on our investment: keeping good teachers, fewer low-performing schools, fewer failing students, fewer dropouts and a stronger economy for the state of Texas," Strayhorn said.

"As a former public school teacher and a former school board president, but most importantly as a momma and a grandmomma, my goal is to drive more of every education dollar directly into the classroom with the students and teachers, where it belongs," Strayhorn said. "Today, our Texas teachers are underpaid and underappreciated. Texas is great, but we can do better."

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December 15, 2004
Wednesday 9:19:15 P.M. CST

Guide to Legislative Lingo
New to the Texas legislative process?

If so, check out the Legislative Lexicon prepared by the Texas Senate Research Center.  The document provides a list of official vocabulary words that are used in the lawmaking process.  Excluded from the document are unofficial words that are used among the Texas lobby such as "flea," which is used to describe a bill that doesn't seem to die because it is attached as an amendment to other legislation.

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December 6, 2004
Monday 8:12:23 A.M. CST

Where's the Check?
December 11, 2004 is a crucial day for statewide officeholders, political action committees, legislative caucuses, and capitol lobbyists.  

That is the day that a contribution moratorium goes into effect.  The moratorium prohibits statewide officeholders and members of the legislature from receiving or accepting campaign contributions 30 days before the start of the regular session of the 79th Texas Legislature.  The moratorium is in effect until June 19, 2005.

The Texas Ethics Commission has identified two exceptions to the moratorium.  

According to the Commission, "the moratorium DOES NOT apply to a political contribution that was made and accepted with the intent that it be used: (1) in an election held or ordered during the period beginning December 12, 2004, and continuing through June 19, 2005, in which the person accepting the contribution is a candidate if the contribution was made after the person appointed a campaign treasurer with the appropriate authority and before the person was sworn in for that office; or (2) to defray expenses incurred in connection with an election contest."

The second exception is particularly important because there are currently three election contests pending in the Texas House of Representatives.  Based on the second exception, Representatives Talmadge Heflin (R-Houston) and Jack Stick (R-Austin) and candidates Hubert Vo (Heflin contest),  Mark Strama (Stick  contest), Eric Opiela (District 35 contest) and Yvonne Gonzales Toureilles (District 35 contest) can accept contributions beyond December 11th if the contributions were made and accepted with the intent to pay for expenses associated with the pending election contests.

Statewide officeholders and members of the legislature can accept an unlimited amount of campaign contributions, but they cannot accept the contributions "inside" the Capitol.  They can accept them outside of the Capitol or at any of the fundraising venues in Austin, such as the Austin Club.  

Several fundraisers and appreciation events have been planned between now and December 11th.  
Be on the lookout for your invite in the mail.

To read several ethics opinions relating to the moratorium, click here.
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November 30, 2004
Tuesday 7:12:04 A.M. CST

Fireworks in January
The New Year's eve fireworks celebration may continue in the Texas House of Representatives when the 79th Texas Legislature convenes on January 11, 2005.

Two current House members, State Representative Talmadge Heflin (R-Houston) and Jack Stick (R-Austin) and attorney Eric Opiela of Karnes City, have filed election challenges, asking the GOP-controlled House to overturn the results of their elections due to voting irregularities and fraud.  All three were certified as the losers of their races by the Secretary of State.  Heflin lost by 32 votes, Stick by 569, and Opiela by 835.

The election challenges are expected to be divisive at a time when there has been a concerted effort by Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick to develop of spirit of bipartisanship.  House Democrats are still upset over the "power grab" that they say occurred during the three special sessions called to address congressional redistricting.  

Procedurally, a legislative committee will be established by the Speaker to investigate the allegations.  The findings will then be reported to the full Texas House, which may or may not take action.  The investigation will be conducted early on in the legislative session.

Ordering a new election and usurping the will of the constituents in a district is a rarity.  The last time a new election was ordered was in 1981. At that time, Democrats had a solid majority in the Texas Legislature.

Stay tuned.  
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November 19, 2004
Friday 7:22:25 P.M. CST

Craddick Appoints New Chairman to Appropriations Committee
Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland) appointed State Representative Jim Pitts (R-Waxahachie) as the new chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee.

The appointment was made pursuant to House Rule 4, Sect. 5 (b) (3), which provides that a vacancy occurs in a standing committee when a member fails to be nominated or elected to the next term of the Texas Legislature.

In this case, the vacancy occurred due to the defeat of State Representative Talmadge Heflin (R-Houston) by political novice and real estate developer Hubert Vo.  The Secretary of State certified the election results in that race earlier today, which Vo won by a mere 32 votes, one more vote than previously counted.

Representative Heflin is still considering his options, which include requesting a recount and an election contest.  Heflin is represented by former First Assistant Attorney General Andy Taylor. Bill Miller, a partner in HillCo Partners, a prominent lobbying firm in Texas, and a close adviser of Speaker Craddick, told the Fort-Worth Star Telegram that it may be time for Heflin to "move on."

"Jim Pitts is well-respected and well-liked by members of the House," said Craddick. "He has chaired subcommittees in the past and already is a member of our leadership team. I believe he is the right person for the job."

"I am so honored that the speaker would entrust me with this position. I'm ready to get to work on this new assignment," said Pitts.  

Pitts has been a member of the Appropriations Committee for eight years. Prior to his new appointment, he chaired the Appropriations Subcommittee on Education. Pitts also served on the House Select Committee on Public School Finance during the current session, chairing its subcommittee on high schools.

Pitts has bachelors, masters and law degrees from Southern Methodist University. He has three children, daughters Duffy Pitts Bloemendal, Ashley Pitts and a son, Ryan Pitts. His wife, Evelyn, died in a traffic accident last June in Dallas.
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November 9, 2004
Tuesday 1:22:15 A.M. CST

Top Craddick Lieutenant Defeated - Heflin Considers Options
According to the final vote tally announced by the Harris County Clerk's Office late Monday night, Talmadge Heflin, the Chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, lost by a mere 31 votes to a political novice and Vietnamese immigrant, Hubert Vo.  

To read more about the hotly contested race, click here.
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November 5, 2004
Thursday 12:06:15 A.M. CST

President Bush's Victory Speech
President Bush reached out to all Americans to come together after Senator John Kerry conceded that there were not enough votes left uncounted in Ohio to overcome President Bush's lead.  As MyCapitol.com accurately predicted in its pre-election analysis, Ohio was the state that would determine the outcome of the presidency.   

To read the President's remarks, click here.

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November 5, 2004
Thursday 12:05:35 A.M. CST

Zogby Statement on 2004 Election
John Zogby of Zogby International released the following statement regarding the 2004 election:

“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."

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November 2, 2004
Tuesday 5:10:25 P.M. CST

Zogby Predicts Kerry Electoral Landslide
John Zogby, the only pollster who accurately predicted the presidential outcomes in 1996 and 2000, has released his electoral projection for tonight's election.

Based on his polling, Zogby predicts that Kerry will win 311 electoral votes and Bush will win 213.  Two states, Nevada and Colorado, are too close to call.  270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.  

To read the projection, click here.

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November 1, 2004
Monday 11:07:45 P.M. CST

Election Day:  What to Expect
Former President Woodrow Wilson once said that an incumbent president wins big or loses big.  William Safire, conservative columnist for the New York Times, and Chris Mathews, host of MSNBC's Hardball, agree with Wilson's statement.  However,  if the political pundits are correct, tomorrow's election will be what pollster John Zogby calls an "Armageddon Election".   Earlier in the day Zogby predicted the electoral count to be Bush 247 and Kerry 264 with Florida (27) a tie. A final analysis will be provided tomorrow.

After millions of dollars and serious name calling by the Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards Campaigns, the election will come down to who can turn out the vote and capture about ten "Battleground States". The goal of both campaigns has been to win a combination of states that will total 270--the number of electoral votes needed to occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Here's what to look for on election night:

The Big O

No, it's not Oprah!

Its Ohio, Ohio, Ohio!   

This is ground zero and the key battleground state that will set the psychological mood for the rest of the night.  No Republican candidate has been elected president without winning the state of Ohio.  Ohio has lost more than 230,000 jobs since Bush won the state in 2000 by 167,000 votes.  More importantly, the county to watch on election night is Stark County.  It is the bellwether county in the state.  The way Stark County goes, so goes Ohio.  

Daily tracking polls show President Bush and John Kerry in a statistical dead heat.  If John Kerry wins Ohio, President Bush will have an uphill battle the rest of the night.

Big Trifecta, Little Trifecta

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are the Big Trifecta that both campaigns have targeted.  These three states are rich in electoral votes that could make the path to the White House an easy one.  Both campaigns agree that whichever candidate wins two out of the three states, will win the election.

Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are the Little Trifecta.  All three states voted for Al Gore in 2000, but the margin of victory was a small one.   President Bush has made a strong showing in the three states and can upset Kerry if he can win two out of the three states.  Senator Kerry needs to win two out of the three states to remain competitive tomorrow night. The Little Trifecta has a total of 27 electoral votes, the same number as Florida.  Thus, if President Bush loses Florida, he can still win if he carries all three states.

Voter Turnout

Record numbers of early votes and absentee ballots have already been cast.  What is important is the voter turnout in the key battleground states that are necessary to reach 270.  Both campaigns have amassed armies of volunteers and pollsters to assure a high voter turnout.  

The Bush-Cheney Campaign has targeted its base: rural voters, military families, and Christian conservatives.  The campaign has focused on states that have ballot initiatives such as banning same-sex marriages to get out the vote.  

The Kerry-Edwards Campaign has focused on minority voters, young voters (18-30), first-time voters, independent voters, and "moveable" voters.  The "moveable" voter has added a new dynamic to the race, which could defy the poll numbers.  If young voters come out in droves, Kerry could have a successful night.      

Whichever campaign can bring its voters to the polls in larger numbers will win the presidency.  Look at the early exit polls in the Big Trifecta and Little Trifecta states to determine the probable outcome.

The Other Battleground States

New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Hampshire, Michigan, Hawaii and even New Jersey have enough electoral votes to make a difference in a close election.   

Al Gore barely won New Mexico in 2000.  Nevada has come into play because of a nuclear waste dump approved by the Bush Administration.  Arizona has a Democratic governor and immigration issues that could encourage Hispanics to vote in large numbers.  New Hampshire narrowly went for President Bush in 2000, but may vote for Senator John Kerry this time around.  Its 4 electoral votes can be pivotal. Michigan has been a Democratic power base, but recent polls show Bush gaining among the conservative Catholic constituency in the state. Hawaii has traditionally voted Democratic, but President Bush has gained in that state. New Jersey is a strong Democratic state, but was severely affected by 9/11 and the recent sex scandal involving the governor.

Colorado is particularly important because of the ballot initiative that will change the way electoral votes are distributed.  If the measure passes tomorrow night, the winner will only take 5 votes instead of 9.  The loser will take 4 votes.  In a tight election, this could make a difference.  Hispanics may also turnout in large numbers in Colorado because of U.S. Senate candidate Ken Salazar.   

Military Ballots

If an election is very close in a key battleground state, neither side may concede until military ballots are counted.  The ballots may be counted several days after election day.

Legal Challenges

Expect legal challenges in Florida and Ohio on election day.  Both Democrats and Republicans have hired legal guns to make sure that voters are alive and legally registered to vote and to prevent voter intimidation.  Legal challenges to a voter's eligibility may slow down voting and affect turnout.

MyCapitol.com will be providing election night coverage when the first polls close.  

Stay tuned for election night alerts!


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November 1, 2004
Monday 11:05:14 P.M. CST

BushKerryRecount.com?
If necessary, MyCapitol.com will be launching a new feature on November 3, 2004.  Many political experts predict that a recount similar to the one in 2000 may occur.  If the results are in dispute and a recount is initiated, log on to http://www.bushkerryrecount.com for more details.

Stay tuned.

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October 12, 2004
Tuesday 10:44:45 P.M. CST

Thou Shall Mess With Texas


One thing is for sure.  The famous motto "Don't Mess With Texas" has no place in the U.S. Supreme Court.

For the third time in recent history, the U.S. Supreme Court will use a Texas case to issue a landmark decision.  A couple of years, Texas football, an unofficial religion in the Lone Star State, was dealt a major blow when the U.S Supreme Court ruled that prayer at football games was unconstitutional.   The ruling was controversial, but not as controversial as the Court's recent decision involving gay rights.  

In its second decision, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated a Texas statute which criminalized sodomy among homosexuals but not heterosexuals. That decision was extremely controversial because it opened the door to the possibility of gay marriage in America.  

Now, the Court is poised to settle the fray between those who believe in the separation of church and state and those advocate Judeo-Christian values in government.  The Texas case, along with a case from Kentucky, will allow the court to establish a bright line rule of what is acceptable on government property and buildings and what is unconstitutional.  In other words, the Court will have to decide if the statue at issue and other displays promote the establishment of religion.

The statue in the Texas case is only 6 feet high and stands between the Texas Capitol and the Texas Supreme Court building.  It was donated by the Fraternal Order of Eagles in 1961 to promote good values and morals and to combat juvenile delinquency.  The statue contains the Ten Commandments, but it also contains the Star of David and other Christian symbols.  What is most striking about the statue is the symbol on top.  It is the Pyramid's Eye or All Seeing Eye that is associated with secret societies, such as the Free Masons and the Illuminati.  The All Seeing Eye is also located on the back of a one dollar bill.  That particular symbol is the focus of a new movie to be released in November, National Treasure.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott will be arguing the case before the U.S. Supreme Court.

"The Ten Commandments are a foundational document for the Texas and U.S. systems of laws. Acknowledging that fact by displaying this monument on the state Capitol grounds is entirely appropriate –and constitutional,” Attorney General Abbott said. “I look forward to defending this Ten Commandments monument before the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Arguments on the case will be presented early next year.


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October 12, 2004
Tuesday 9:54:13 A.M. CST

U.S. Supreme Court to Review Ten Commandments Display on Texas Capitol Grounds
CNN is reporting that the U.S. Supreme Court will review legal challenges to displays of the Ten Commandments in public buildings and lands.  One of the cases that will be reviewed involves a display of the Ten Commandments on the northside of the Texas Capitol.

Stay tuned for more information.

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October 10, 2004
Sunday 9:34:33 P.M. CST

Zogby:  Kerry Ahead by 1 Point
John Zogby, the only pollster who accurately predicted the 1996 and 2000 presidential races, released a daily tracking poll today that shows John Kerry leading President Bush by 1 point.  The poll mirrors the same result of a tracking poll released yesterday, which was 46% for John Kerry and 45% for President Bush.  Both poll results fall within the 2.9% margin of error.

“This is so much like 2000 it's scary," said Zogby.  

"Kerry's precarious lead -- if you can call it that -- remains. He leads in big cities 56% to 37%, but Bush is ahead in both the suburbs (49%-44%) and rural areas (54%-36%). The two are tied in small cities at 45%," noted Zogby.

"There is a lot of campaigning to go. Remember that in 2000, the lead changed several times in October.”

On the day of the first Presidential debate, Zogby released an article titled "The Race is Still John Kerry's to Lose."

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October 10, 2004
Sunday 2:29:10 A.M. CST

The Bulge in Bush's Back

 

What was the bulge in President Bush's back during the first debate in Florida?  

Conspiracy theorists and Democratic operatives speculate that the rectangular bulge is a hidden receiver used by Karl Rove, the President key political adviser, to coach the President on how to answer questions.   The Bush-Cheney Campaign has denied that it was a hidden receiver.    

According to the New York Times, the Bush-Cheney campaign said that it might be a wrinkle in his jacket.  The campaign also said that it was not caused by a bullet-proof vest because the President was not wearing one that day.  

Interestingly, one of the debate rules was not to photograph the candidates' backs during the debate.  

Hmmmm?

For more information, go to http://www.isbushwired.com.
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September 20, 2004
Monday 8:04:25 P.M. CST

EXCLUSIVE:  Top Ten List of October Surprises!
Note:  You can also access the same article at the following sites:



__________________________________________________

Timing is everything in politics.

If presidential election history is a guide, there WILL be an October Surprise between Thursday, October 28, 2004 and November 2, 2004.  The goal of an October Surprise is to shake the electorate to make sure that a particular presidential candidate wins.  The most interesting October Surprises are the ones controlled by the presidential campaigns or by individuals who have a political agenda because they determine the date and time of the surprise.   

The race between President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry will undoubtedly be a close one.  Any damaging surprise can tilt the vote in key battleground states and determine the outcome. According to independent pollster John Zogby, the only pollster who accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential race in 1996 and 2000 and the one relied on by MyCapitol.com for electoral college analysis, the current race will come down to the wire, despite the recent fluctuations in recent polls by other news organizations.

The Top Ten List of October Surprises that could affect the outcome of the presidential race is as follows:

1.     OSAMA BIN LADEN WILL BE CAPTURED

The hunt for Osama Bin Laden is like the hunt for the Holy Grail in Dan Brown's The Da Vinci Code. If he is found, he will validate President Bush's war on terror, his primary campaign issue, and bring unexpected electoral success.

Interestingly, President Bush did not mention Osama Bin Laden when he accepted the Republican nomination for President on September 2, 2004.  Two reasons could account for Bin Laden's absence.  First, the President or his presidential advisors (i.e. Karl Rove) might want to lower expectations to heighten the surprise just in case Bin Laden is found.  Second,  Bin Laden will not be found and the President does not want to raise any hopes.

Some skeptics believe that he has already been found and will be "officially found" in October. Remember, it's the timing that matters.  

2.     CODE RED:  TERRORISTS WILL ATTACK THE UNITED STATES

It happened in Spain and it could happen in the United States.  For several months there has been speculation that Al-Qaeda may want to disrupt the presidential elections.  Even though it is not Al-Qaeda's modus operandi to strike when the spotlight is on their activities, a terrorist strike is still possible, even with the increased security and intelligence since 9-11.

If an attack is imminent, expect the Department of Homeland Security to raise the threat level to "RED".  The fear of a possible attack will affect the way people vote.  It is no coincidence that Vice-President Dick Cheney and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert have told the American people that a vote for Kerry is a vote for a new terrorist attack.  

Don't be surprised if there are armed guards by your voting booth.

3.     AT LEAST ONE WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION WILL BE FOUND

Somewhere under the sands of Iraq a weapon of mass destruction may be found in October.  Saddam Hussein's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction was the main reason for removing the vicious dictator and going to war.  Finding at least one weapon will vindicate President Bush and justify a continued American presence in the oil rich country.

4.     TOP WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL WILL BE INDICTED FOR CIA LEAK

Someone close to the President or Vice-President will take the fall for leaking the name of Valerie Plame, a covert CIA agent and wife of Ambassador Joseph C. Wilson.  An independent prosecutor has questioned various reporters who have identified the White House source.  Stay tuned for the shake-up.  

5.     JOHN KERRY'S DIVORCE PAPERS WILL BE UNSEALED

It happened to Barack Obama's Republican opponent in Illinois and it could happen to John Kerry.  The media have been trying to unseal Kerry's divorce papers to publish juicy and embarrassing details, if any.  The publication of embarrassing details could affect the public's perception of Kerry's character in key battleground states.

6.     JOHN KERRY'S FORMER INTERN WILL SPEAK

She may be in Africa, but she could spice up a close campaign by granting media interviews to discuss her prior relationship with John Kerry.   Kerry's former intern has denounced reports of an alleged affair.  However, strange things do happen as an election gets closer.

7.     "FAHRENHEIT 9-11" WILL BE TOP VIDEO/DVD SELLER

Michael Moore is about to get richer.  On October 5th, the date of the Vice-Presidential debate in Ohio, his larger than life op-ed piece about the Bush Administration and the war on terror will hit video stores.  In a recent survey, more than 30% said they were going to skip the theater version and wait for it to be released on VHS/DVD.

With the number of casualties mounting in Iraq, Fahrenheit 9-11 may lead voters to ask, "Why are we there?"  

8.     IRAN AND NORTH KOREA WILL MAKE NUCLEAR THREAT    

Mushroom cloud?  Dam building?

Iran and North Korea are the other members of the once popular term, "Axis of Evil".  Unlike Iraq, they do have weapons of mass destruction or will have them very soon.

A threat by Iran and North Korea to sell weapons of mass destruction to terrorists may spark a preemptive strike by the Bush Administration and keep Americans focused on the war on terror.

9.   MORE NATIONAL GUARD PAPERS WILL BE RELEASED

New documents about President Bush's record may come to light, but they will not be reported by CBS News or Dan Rather.  After receiving a journalistic black-eye, Bush's National Guard papers may be too radioactive for CBS to touch.  Don't be surprised if other media outlets of 527 groups divulge the information.

10.   A WITNESS WILL CLAIM THE $50,000 REWARD

Texans for Truth, an Austin, Texas based 527 group created in response to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacks on John Kerry's record, has offered $50,000 to anyone who served with President Bush in Alabama.  The President has been unable to identify any witnesses. A surprise witness may step up to the plate to claim the reward at the last minute and restore confidence in the President's National Guard service.

Stay tuned for the surprises!
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September 12, 2004
Sunday 7:49:15 P.M. CST

New Congressional Districts in Texas?
The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to confer on September 27, 2004 to determine if it will hear an appeal concerning Texas' new congressional districts.  The Democratic Plaintiffs claim that the new districts violate the U.S. Constitution because they discriminate based on party affiliation and the Voting Rights Act.  They also claim that the districts were illegally drawn because "mid-decade" redistricting is prohibited.  

A decision is expected by September 30, 2004.  If the U.S. Supreme Court takes probable jurisdiction, a decision could come next spring.  
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September 12, 2004
Sunday 7:38:45 P.M. CST

Texas School Finance Trial to End This Week
The trial challenging Texas' school finance system will end this week.  The Plaintiffs in the case claim that the State of Texas does not adequately fund the public school system and that the current funding scheme constitutes an unconstitutional statewide property tax.  The State of Texas maintains that the system is constitutional and that the Texas Legislature is ultimately responsible for changing the system.

Closing arguments are scheduled for Wednesday, September 15th.  Travis County District Judge John Dietz is expected to issue an opinion within hours after closing arguments.  The decision will be appealed to the Texas Supreme Court.

Stay tuned.  

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